S-500 Prometey [55R6M Triumfator M]

When the first reliable news about the development of the
fifth-generation air defense system surfaced in 2009, the S-500 Prometey was
supposed to be introduced in 2012. The S-500 is under development by the
Almaz-Antey Air Defence Concern, initially planned to be in production in 2014
it is currently targeting 2020 for deployment. With its characteristics it will
be very similar to the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system.

In contrast to the S-400, whose primary purpose was air
defense, the S-500 is intended to be a full-fledged anti-ballistic missile
(ABM) system. Rather than succeeding the S-400, it is intended to work in
conjunction with it. While the S-400 is designed to defend against short- and
medium-range missiles, the S-500 is designed to combat intercontinental
ballistic missiles (ICBMs). In 2012, the system had completed the technical
design phase and the estimated timeframe for its deployment was reported to be
2019-20.

The exact specifications of the new airspace defense system
remain classified, and the most detailed comment to date on the design
philosophy and implementation have been observations made by Russian defense
and industry officials in interviews. According to them, the S-500 is derived
from the existing S-400 Triumf, but reduced in dimensions and more
power-efficient. The choice of vehicles intended to carry the S-500 launchers,
radars, command posts, and other electronic equipment suggests a highly mobile
and survivable system, built for “hide, shoot and scoot” operations.

Designed to intercept ballistic missiles at a height of up
to 200 kilometers and a maximum range of 600 kilometers, the system is expected
to be able to shoot down up to ten incoming ballistic missiles simultaneously.
It also has an extended radar range compared to the S-400. Russia’s Air Force
Commander-in-Chief Lieutenant General Viktor Bondarev claimed that the S-500
will also have a response time of about three to four seconds, which is
considerably shorter than the S-400, which is rated at nine to ten
seconds. 

New S-500 Missiles.

What remains a source of speculation, however, is the kind of interception the S-500 missiles will use. One option is a nuclear blast because it can destroy “the entire cloud of incoming warheads with no need to determine true threats from dummies.” Most of the missiles in the S-300 and S-400 systems use high-explosive fragmentation warheads. Russia, however, is working on two new missiles that have been designed for the S-500 (and the S-400): the 77N6-N and the 77N6-N1. They will be the first Russian missiles with inert warheads, which can destroy nuclear warheads by hitting them with precision at hypersonic speed (7-km per second). This would far outmatch even the American SM-3 block IIA missile, which is also currently under development and is beingdeployed from 2018 onwards. The Block II has a projected maximum speed of roughly 4.5-km per second and enhanced capability to address intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and a limited capability to address ICBMs. However, it is not clear when the 77N6-N and the 77N6-N1 may enter service, given that facilities for their production are still in construction. 

The main components of the S-500 will be:

• launch vehicle 77P6, based on the BAZ-69096
  10×10 truck
• command posts 55K6MA and 85Zh6-2 on BAZ-69092-12
  6×6
• acquisition and battle management radar
  91N6A(M), a modification of the 91N6 (Big Bird) towed by the BAZ-6403.01 8×8
  tractor
• 96L6-TsP acquisition radar, an upgraded version
  of the 96L6 (Cheese Board) on BAZ-69096 10×10
• multimode engagement radar 76T6 on BAZ-6909-022
  8×8
• ABM engagement radar 77T6 on BAZ-69096 10×10

Initially, two large factories in Kirov and Nizhniy
Novgorod, the cost of which was estimated at 81 billion rubles, were supposed
to start production of 77N6N and 77N6-N1 missiles “at the beginning of
2014.” Latest reports suggest that the Kirov facility began production at
the end of 2015, with full capacity utilization available in 2017. The Nizhniy
Novgorod facility was finished in 2016 and employ 3,500 people.

The absence of more advanced missiles in general is one of
the major obstacles to fully equipping the VKO with modern systems. The missile
shortage worsened after the production of the old S-300 was stopped completely,
even for exports. This has also reflected workforce aging and the low
replacement rates of production equipment. In 2008, Almaz-Antey agreed with the
Defense Ministry on a plan for the company’s modernization, but, due to the
financial crisis, those intentions never materialized. It took an intensive
campaign calling for overhaul and refurbishment to induce the presidential
administration to act. In February 2012, President Putin signed a Federal
Targeted Program for the development of the defense industry to 2020, under
which three trillion rubles were promised to the military-industrial complex
for the modernization of its production facilities.

Bottlenecks in missile production could cause further delay
in the introduction of the S-500. The S-400 is already in operation and,
therefore, any further delays in 40N6 missile production will set upgrades back
still further. Unlike the S-400, the S-500 cannot employ missiles used in the
S-300 family, which means that the range of the missiles suitable for the
system is severely limited. There are already signs that additional delays are
to be expected. At first, the State Armament Program 2011-20 projected purchases
of 10 battalions of the S-500.

At the end of 2013, the Commander of the VKO expected five
batteries to be delivered by 2020, with first batches arriving in “several
years.”

The results of throwing more money at the defense industry
remain to be seen. As defense analyst Aleksandr Konovalov put it:

The country’s leadership looks at the defense sector like
a Coke machine. Put money in and get a bottle. Nothing is that simple with the
domestic military-industrial complex, and investing a lot of money doesn’t
guarantee getting production precisely on time. And the discussion about the
S-500 is questionable; it’s possible it doesn’t even exist in drawings.

Whether or not the system really exists and regardless of
what its real capabilities are if it does, Russian senior officers are publicly
confident about its performance, especially vis-a-vis American competitors.
Thus, the former Commander of the VKO, Colonel General Oleg Ostapenko, claimed
in 2012 that “the S-500 will be better than any similar U. S. system. The
Americans have so far only hyped them up in the electronic media, but we
already in effect have a real missile.” Declining to give the
specifications and performance characteristics of the missile for the S-500, he
said “until it flies, we do not talk about these things.”

At Sea.

Russia is also working on naval versions of the S-400 and
S-500, but their deployment seems also to be unlikely in the near future.
According to a source from the military-industrial complex, the S-400F, the
naval version of the S-400, was “practically ready” in 2012, but no
information about its commissioning has yet appeared in open sources. The
carriers of the systems were supposed to be the three mothballed
nuclear-powered Kirov-class missile cruisers (the Admiral Nakhimov, Admiral
Lazarev, and Admiral Ushakov), with 2020 given as the year of their
reintroduction into service. The naval version is the likely armament for the
new Lider-class air-defense destroyers due to enter service in 2023–25

After years of delays, the refit of the Admiral Nakhimov
finally began at the beginning of 2014. The cruiser will be equipped with P-800
Oniks (SS-N-26) supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, and the S-400 Triumf,
along with other weapon systems designed to shoot down missiles and aircraft
approaching the ship. The refit should be completed in 2018. The other missile
cruisers, including the Pyotr Velikiy, the only Kirov-class ship active in
service, are expected to be modernized as well, but no timeframes have been
announced.

In March 2013, the Navy reportedly decided to heavily
modernize antisubmarine ships of the Project 1155 Fregat (NATO codename Udaloy)
class and equip them with the Redut air defense system with interceptors from
the S-400. A representative from the Northern Shipyards design bureau, which
built the Project 1155 vessels and is among the front runners in the
competition for modernization of Project 1155, said that:

the first modernized big antisubmarine ship will appear
not earlier than in 2016: development of the lead project will take about 18
months. After that the technical project of modernization will be retrofitted
for 2 to 4 years more. 

In February 2013, the Russian Navy approved a preliminary
design for the largest naval ship to be built since 1989. According to the
newspaper, Izvestia, the new ship will be armed with anti-ship missiles, cruise
missiles, air defense and ballistic defense systems, including the S-500.
However, no final decision about its construction has been made, and it will
take 2 to 3 years just to prepare technical documentation. Finally, the
official designation for the naval version of the S-500 does not appear to have
been made known publicly.

CONCLUSION

Over the last 8 years, Russia has significantly modernized
its air defense systems, expanding them geographically and making them more
versatile, mobile, and effective. The interceptors introduced in this period,
mainly on the S-400 platform, give Russia the capability to counter a wide
range of missile threats up to and including IRBMs in some of the most
important and/or vulnerable parts of its territory.

Further improvement and geographical expansion of air
defense capabilities will depend on the ability of arms manufacturers to deal
with increased demands of the State Armament Program. One of the main
bottlenecks-the design, production, and troubleshooting of the newest
long-range interceptors-significantly restricts the operational range of the
S-400 by denying it the intended long-range interceptors, and will in all
probability cause still further substantial delays in introducing the S-500.
The commissioning of this system before 2020 is unlikely.

If published figures are to be believed, the S-400
represents the apex of current air defense capabilities, and is in many
respects more capable than the U. S. Patriot series. However, comparisons with
THAAD and SM-3 missiles could be misleading, as these systems were developed
solely for the purpose of missile defense and their design follows an entirely
different philosophy. Russia’s goal is to protect its territory from within its
borders, using a multilayered shield of several complementary systems,
including, but not limited to, the S-400 and the S-500. The United States is
focusing heavily on countering ballistic missiles in various stages of their
flight, which requires a missile defense shield of global reach and presence.